Analysis | Our eight favorite Super Bowl picks, props and best bets (2024)

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Neil’s take: The point spread opened with the 49ers as 2½-point favorites and was quickly bet down to 49ers -1½, only to creep back up to 2 or 2½ over the past few days. If you like the 49ers, that’s an easy play as long as the spread stays under the key number of three. If you prefer the Chiefs, catching just 2½ points with an underdog is not advisable. Instead, you should play the Chiefs money line or look for an alternative spread, such as Chiefs -2½ at +135 or better.

Matt’s take: To get to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have beaten a fish-out-of-water Miami Dolphins team in freezing-cold conditions, a banged-up Buffalo Bills team and a Baltimore Ravens team that oddly abandoned nearly everything that got it to the AFC championship game. In that most recent matchup, Kansas City was outgained by 1.5 yards per play (a sizable amount in a one-game sample) and was shut out in the second half, punting five times in a row and averaging only 14.6 yards on those drives. The Chiefs also recovered both of the Ravens’ fumbles while not losing either of their two fumbles, a sign that luck was on their side. I think that luck runs out here against a 49ers team that simply has more weapons, particularly on offense.

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Pick: Under 47½ points

Neil’s take: Two of the league’s best defenses will be on the field in Las Vegas. According to NFL analyst Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average metric, which adjusts a team’s efficiency for strength of schedule, San Francisco has had the fourth-best defense this season, including the playoffs, while Kansas City’s defense is ranked seventh. That should mean a lower-scoring game. How low? Using these inputs and simulating the game 1,000 times yields an average total of 38 points, with just a 23 percent chance of more than 47 points being scored.

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Pick: Under 13½ points

Matt’s take: The Chiefs are averaging 3.6 points in the fourth quarter — fewest in the NFL — and have allowed all of three points combined in the fourth quarter of their three playoff games. They’re 19-1 to the fourth-quarter under in 20 games this season, and it’s not like they’ve been involved in a ton of blowouts that were more or less decided after three quarters: The margin was within one score entering the fourth quarter in 12 of Kansas City’s games. The 49ers are allowing only 3.5 points in the fourth quarter — No. 1 in the league — and have allowed only one fourth-quarter touchdown in their two playoff games. It’s a recipe for a tight final stanza, yet you can find this prop at plus odds at some sportsbooks.

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Pick: First half (+105 odds at DraftKings)

Matt’s take: This pick is a riff on the one above. The second half has been the higher-scoring half in only two of the Chiefs’ 20 games this season, including the playoffs. Scoring in 49ers games has been a little more balanced, but the first half still outscored the second half in 12 of 19 games. Recent Super Bowls have generally seen more points in the second half — 16 of 24 this century — but the first half has outscored the second half in the past three, and I think that continues here.

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Pick: Under 246½ yards (This number varies at different sportsbooks.)

Neil’s take: Both teams’ pass defenses ranked in the top five per defense-adjusted value over average. There have been 22 such matchups in the NFL postseason since 2002; the average passing yards for quarterbacks in those games is just 217½, with the median value at 213½. That falls in line with my projection for Purdy of 203½ passing yards against Kansas City — well below the total offered at many sportsbooks.

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Pick: Over 90½ yards

Matt’s take: Pick a rushing defense statistic, and the Chiefs were near the bottom of the league. They ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed (4.5) and 28th in expected points allowed per rush, even though 10 of their 20 games were against teams ranked 21st or worst in offensive yards per carry. The Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs, the Dolphins’ Raheem Mostert (during the regular season) and the Bills’ James Cook (also during the regular season) — three of the best running backs Kansas City faced — exceeded their season-long yards-per-carry averages against the Chiefs, who now must deal with perhaps the most complete running back in the game in McCaffrey. San Francisco employs a two-tight end, one-running back formation on 40 percent of its snaps, second highest in the NFL, and Kansas City ranked 31st in stopping the run out of that formation. McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per carry, tops among workhorse running backs who played a full season, and has reached at least 90 rushing yards in both of the 49ers’ playoff games. He should do so again in the Super Bowl.

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Pick: Drive ends in field goal attempt (+390 odds at FanDuel)

Neil’s take: It’s exciting to see a touchdown on a team’s opening drive, but there is value on betting that the Chiefs will instead attempt a field goal. They have attempted field goals on 30 percent of their opening drives, greater than their touchdown rate. (The Chiefs made field goals on five of their 20 first drives, missed a field goal once, scored five touchdowns, turned it over once and punted eight times.) The 49ers allow an above-average rate of field goals made on their opening defensive possession (26 percent). After adjusting these rates for opponents faced, that implies a fair value of +180 for the outcome of Kansas City’s first drive to be a field goal attempt. That means a price of +390 offers plenty of value.

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Pick: Over 2.5 sacks (+105 odds at DraftKings)

Neil’s take: The Chiefs’ pass rush is underrated but effective; it has prevented opponents from scoring an estimated 4.9 points per game based on the down, distance and field position of each sack, according to TruMedia. After adjusting their sack rate for down, distance and opponent, the Chiefs have the No. 1 pass-rushing unit per Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has been the league’s ninth-best pass rusher, per Pro Football Focus, after tallying 85 total pressures (and 11 sacks) in the regular season and playoffs. The 49ers’ offensive line, meanwhile, is ranked 25th by Pro Football Focus and 18th by defense-adjusted value over average.

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Pick: Yes (-180 odds)

Matt’s take: You’re paying significant juice for this one, but don’t let that stop you. This prop has hit in 25 of the past 30 Super Bowls, including eight of the past nine. The past nine Super Bowls have been decided by an average of nine points, and even in the four games over that span that were decided by double digits, three were one-score games in the fourth quarter. A close game is expected Sunday, at least if the point spread is to be believed, and things might not be decided until the final minutes. Another late score is on the table.

Everything to know about Super Bowl LVIII

Here’s everything you need to know about the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

Key players: Patrick Mahomes is an elite QB who’s about to lead the Chiefs to their fourth Super Bowl in his six seasons as a starter. TE Travis Kelce has been resurgent. And Kansas City’s defense has never been better during Mahomes’s tenure. The 49ers, meanwhile, have a stacked offense that includes QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, T Trent Williams, TE George Kittle and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Odds and Bets: As of Tuesday, San Francisco was favored by two points. These are the Super Bowl prop bets worth consideration.

Food and recipes: Hosting a Super Bowl party? Serve up these wings, dips, chilis or nachos. Check out more recipes.

Taylor Swift: It’s unclear if Swift will make the Super Bowl, but her fans did the math and said she could, even if her carbon emissions come under scrutiny. One thing’s for certain: Everyone wants to know the details.